Water has become less and less accessible in many parts of the world. Such a water shortage is linked to change in the Earths climates. According to climate experts, the ‘greenhouse’ effect due to the increased input of carbon dioxide and other ‘greenhouse’ gases in the atmosphere, should lead to a change in Earth’s average temperature, subsequently in its climates, and should be accompanied by a change in the precipitation regime (change in rainfall). The present work aims to evidence the influence of rainfall changes on cereal production in the Mascara area. In order to estimate the plant water need, we analysed the respective parameters: ‘rainfall’, ‘evapotranspiration’ and ‘available soil water storage’. Calculation of rainfall and agricultural deficits evidenced that rainfall is the most determining factor for the development of agriculture. During the dry season, the cereal production in the Mascara region, in the semi-arid zone, is equal to 247,000 qx, i.e. a yield of 5.87 qx/ha. On the other hand, during the rainy season, this production can reach 1,308,870 qx, that is a yield of 10.28 qx/ha, hence an increase rate of 57.10%. The ANOVA test is significant with a probability of 0.05, evidencing a direct correlation between cereal production and rainfall, while the mathematical square power model gives us a good correlation with a coefficient of determination R2= 0.578.

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